New Poll Gives Swing State Governor Some Bad News

On Wednesday, the Marquette Law School released their latest poll. Although there is good news for Evers, in that he’s considered the most popular figure in the state with a 48-46 percent approval/disapproval rating among registered voters there, a majority, at 55 percent, don’t think he should run for a third term. 

Will Evers listen to the will of the voters or will he run again for a third term? If he goes with the latter, he’ll be following in the footsteps of Walker, whom he ended up defeating. Walker had initially said he wouldn’t run for a third term, but he still did so. As the poll results note, he was in an even worse spot than Evers is, though that poll was conducted a few years before the 2018 election. “Support for Evers running for a third term next year is greater than it was for former Gov. Scott Walker in January 2016, when 36% wanted him to seek a third term in 2018 and 61% did not,” Marquette’s poll release noted.

Evers may be a swing state governor, with a plurality of support, but he doesn’t act like it. As the Democratic Party overall how become more radically leftist and embraced language and policies that seek to erase women and basic biological reality, Evers is there for it. 

In February, as we covered at the time, Evers came under fire for a budget bill, close to 2,000 pages long, which aimed to change “mother” to “inseminated person.” That current budget proposal is under review, and has also been in the news as Evers must negotiate with Republicans controlling both the State Assembly and State Senate. 

This most recent poll from Marquette focuses on the budget in that a majority, at 65 percent, want to see at least half of the surplus should go towards a tax cut.

 As the poll release notes:

As the governor and legislature struggle over a possible tax cut, the public supports using at least some of the roughly $4 billion state budget surplus for tax cuts. Asked what percentage of the $4 billion state surplus should be used for tax cuts, 65% say half or more of the surplus should go to tax cuts, including 27% who say it should all go to tax cuts, 9% who say three-quarters, and 29% who say about half. Nineteen percent say a quarter of the surplus should go for tax cuts, and 16% say none of it should go for tax cuts. Republicans prefer a larger amount for tax cuts, while Democrats prefer a smaller share… 

The poll was conducted June 13-19 with 873 registered Wisconsin voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. 

The budget, which has been stalling, is even further relevant when it comes to the governor’s reelection prospects. As the Associated Press covered earlier this month, prior to the poll being conducted, Evers won’t make a decision about running for reelection until after the budget deal has been figured out. 

As that report mentioned:

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — A breakdown in negotiations over a tax cut and other spending measures in Wisconsin threatens to put the 2026 race for governor on hold, with the Democratic incumbent saying he won’t announce his decision on seeking a third term in the swing state until after a budget deal is done.

Gov. Tony Evers and Republicans who control the Legislature have been meeting in private since April trying to hammer out a deal ahead of the July 1 deadline. But those talks broke down late Wednesday when Republicans walked away, both sides said.

The routine budget-writing process comes as Wisconsin is poised to be in the national political spotlight again next year with the race for governor and a fight over control of the Legislature. Evers has drawn the ire of President Donald Trump’s administration and winning back the governor’s office is a priority for Republicans.

…

The governor’s spokesperson, Sam Roecker, declined to comment on whether the stalled talks will affect the timing of Evers’ decision.

…

Republican committee co-chair Sen. Howard Marklein said he was confident the Legislature would pass a budget that Evers will sign into law, noting that it has done that three times already since 2019.

Unlike in many states, the July 1 budget deadline in Wisconsin is soft because if a new plan isn’t in place by then current spending levels continue. And once the Legislature passes a budget, Evers can put his mark on it through his broad veto powers that allow him to make dramatic changes in spending.

The write-up also mentioned congressional district maps and their relevance to the race “New legislative district maps enacted in February 2024 are more favorable for Democrats, leading them to pick up seats in the November election. They are optimistic that they can swing at least one house of the Legislature in 2026, making it easier for a Democratic governor to enact their agenda,” the report mentioned.