One of the easier things to do in forecasting high school basketball is to gauge a team’s regular season and how it translates to the Class 3A postseason. If you do well for three months, you’re likely in good sectional title shape.
Last year’s sectional championship games in Class 3A is a perfect case in point. Every single team playing in the sectional final was either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed with three top seeds winning (No. 2 Peoria Richwoods over No. 1 Thornton was the only outlier).
In the last three postseasons played in Class 3A, there has only been one team — yes, a single team — that’s won a sectional championship game that wasn’t a one or two seed. Lemont did so in 2021 as a No. 4 seed, losing to Simeon in the supersectional.
There simply isn’t much depth in Class 3A. Thus the top teams are always advancing through the early rounds pretty much unscathed.
That remains the expectation again this season but with one exception. The Washington Sectional in central Illinois is deep, balanced, the best in 3A and one where anything could happen.
Here is a forecast of what looks to be an all-too-familiar final and a very heavy dose of Catholic League basketball across several sectionals.
Brother Rice Sectional
Semifinal picks: Brother Rice over Hillcrest; Lemont over Marian Catholic
Sectional pick: Brother Rice
Marcos Gonzales, Jack Wiegus and the Crusaders are the pick. Brother Rice wins its first sectional in 20 years.
Washington Sectional
Semifinal picks: Morton over Kankakee; Peoria over Streator
Sectional pick: Peoria
Plenty of star power in what is by far the toughest 3A sectional in the state. There are as many as four legit contenders, including a Metamora team that must face Morton in the regional.
Yes, it’s truly up for grabs. Pick a team out of a hat. But star LeShawn Stowers and a feisty Peoria team have the best path and find a way.
Little Village Sectional
Semifinal picks: Fenwick over Payton; St. Patrick over Schurz
Sectional pick: Fenwick
St. Pat’s beat Fenwick by 20 in last year’s sectional semifinals. Expect a rematch.
In a sectional where there is zero depth, both Fenwick and St. Pat’s cruise to the title game. Fenwick’s defense and physicality grind out a tight win.
Glenbard South Sectional
Semifinal picks: St. Laurence over Hyde Park; Mount Carmel over St. Francis
Sectional pick: Mount Carmel
You have to love the road the two Catholic League teams have in getting to the final.
St. Laurence finished the year with 10 straight wins, including a victory over Mount Carmel. But the Caravan’s “Big Three” win the rematch with its Catholic League foe and claim a second straight sectional championship.
Antioch Sectional
Semifinal picks: DePaul Prep over St. Viator; Lake Forest over Deerfield
Sectional pick: DePaul Prep
Is anyone beating DePaul in this sectional? Likely not. But if Lake Forest gets by a sneaky good Deerfield team in the semis, the Scouts will have a shot.
Rochelle Sectional
Semifinal picks: Crystal Lake South over Sycamore; Kaneland over Freeport
Sectional pick: Kaneland
It’s a rematch of last year’s sectional final but with a much different result. This Kaneland team is much better than the one that was drilled by Crystal Lake South a year ago.
Decatur Eisenhower Sectional
Semifinal picks: Decatur MacArthur over Springfield Lanphier; Lincoln over Mt. Zion
Sectional pick: Decatur MacArthur
MacArthur beat Lincoln 42-33 two weeks ago. The Generals get the Railers again.
Marion Sectional
Semifinal picks: Marion over Troy Triad; Centralia over East St. Louis
Sectional pick: Centralia
Marion and Mt. Vernon will meet in a regional final after splitting two games in recent weeks that were decided by four points and two overtimes. Marion wins the rubber-match and gets to play the sectional on its home floor.
Centralia, a team that has beaten both Marist and Evanston this year, wins its second straight sectional championship.
Class 3A State Semifinal Picks: Mount Carmel over Peoria; DePaul over Centralia
Class 3A State Championship: DePaul over Mount Carmel
