Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has not had too easy a time as the Democratic leader for President Donald Trump’s second term in office. While he helped avoid a government shutdown by voting to advance the continuing resolution (CR) last month, it’s earned him plenty of flak from his fellow Democrats. His Senate seat may even be at risk. With the release of a new poll from Data for Progress, it’s looking like it could be increasingly likely.
What we’ve seen so far, at least from Schumer’s fellow Democrats and those who caucus with the Democrats, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is that they don’t want to talk about it. Sanders even walked out of an interview last week. But then Data for Progress shared their poll results with POLITICO on a hypothetical primary between Schumer and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), a member of the far-left Squad who was particularly angry with Schumer for caving when he announced he’d vote to advance the CR.
A major takeaway from the poll is that AOC leads Schumer for a hypothetical 2028 primary by 55-36 percent, with likely Democratic primary voters in New York, almost 20 percent. Nine percent were unsure, and we’re still years away from the primary.
NEW: In a hypothetical matchup for the 2028 U.S. Senate primary in New York, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads Chuck Schumer by a 19-point margin. pic.twitter.com/PxitdlN6MO
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) April 4, 2025
Even with the primary so long from now, voters seem pretty set in their views, and beyond how just 9 percent are undecided. The poll references information that voters were read about Schumer and AOC, including positive information, which provides a lot of fluff about each candidate. Both of the candidates’ favorable views increase, with Schumer seeing more of a jump (+26 to +47), though AOC’s favorable rating is still much higher (+59 to +69). AOC also still won 56 percent of the vote to Schumer’s 36 percent.
Voters also heard negative perceptions about each candidate, and there’s plenty to be said about AOC. Even still, AOC came out on top:
Voters were also shown potential lines of attack against the two candidates. The first statement describes Ocasio-Cortez as a polarizing figure who divides Democrats and pushes policies that are too extreme for the party. Fourteen percent of New York Democratic primary voters say this statement is “very concerning.”
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may be able to energize more extreme elements in her party, but she has proven to be a polarizing figure who often divides Democrats and alienates moderates. Her confrontational style and social-media presence have overshadowed efforts to build consensus and achieve real legislative progress. Instead of working effectively within the party to advance progressive causes, Ocasio-Cortez has made headlines by clashing with other Democrats and pushing proposals that are seen as too extreme by many Americans. While she touts her grassroots background, critics say her approach is more about personal branding than delivering for her district. New Yorkers deserve a representative who can unite people around shared goals and work productively in Congress, rather than stoking division and controversy.
The second statement describes Schumer as a “career politician” who has cozied up to big corporations and voted with MAGA extremists instead of helping working people. Thirty-three percent find this statement “very concerning.”
Chuck Schumer is a career politician who has spent decades in Washington, often prioritizing political calculations over the needs of New Yorkers. Just weeks ago, he joined Trump and MAGA leaders in Congress to vote for their spending bill, earning backlash for aligning with extremists. Schumer has been criticized for cozying up to big corporations and failing to deliver tangible results for working families across the state. At a time when Democrats need to stand rm against Republican threats to healthcare, abortion access, and Social Security, Schumer’s willingness to accommodate Trump has called his judgment into question. New Yorkers deserve a senator who is focused on fighting for middle-class families, not clinging onto a leadership title in Washington.
Still, after reading these statements, the race remains the same, with Ocasio-Cortez continuing to lead by 20 points.
After showing a chart of how AOC still leads, the poll mentioned, “The results indicate that Schumer has left himself vulnerable to a primary challenger in 2028, and that Ocasio-Cortez could be a strong candidate to defeat the incumbent New York senator. New York Democrats — and Democrats nationwide — clearly want a leadership that fights harder to defeat Trump and the MAGA agenda.”
When it comes to the statement about Schumer, it’s worth pointing out that he did not actually vote for the CR, described as the Republicans’ “spending bill,” with no mention of a government shutdown. On the final passage, only retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Sen. Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with Democrats, voted for it. Even still, that the race remains unchanged is certainly curious for the Democratic Party.
Facts aside, it’s inescapable that AOC remains the most popular New York Democrat in a list of 15 Democrats, while Schumer is the most unpopular. The latter has a +26 percent net approval rating, while AOC’s is at a +59. Who is the most popular figure with respondents? It’s Sanders, who is quite close with AOC when it comes to shared politics as well as how they’ve recently done rallies together.
Senator Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician among N.Y. Democratic primary voters, followed by Harris (+63), Warren (+60), and Ocasio-Cortez (+59). pic.twitter.com/H8mretNOVz
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) April 4, 2025
If all remains the same, and if AOC doesn’t choose to run for president instead that same year, it’s worth warning to be careful what you wish for, but Republicans might actually have a chance at winning that U.S. Senate race. AOC may be a popular figure, but this is only amongst Democratic primary voters, and her extreme politics may turn off independent voters and Republicans in New York. Schumer actually defeated the last Republican to represent New York in the chamber, when he beat Al D’Amato in 1998.
Almost the entire country saw a shift to the right for the 2024 elections. While Joe Biden won New York in 2020 by over 23 points, Kamala Harris won the state last November by just about 12.5 points. AOC was aware of and none too pleased about how there were those who voted to reelect her while also choosing Trump.
This poll of likely Democratic primary voters in New York was conducted March 26-31 with 767 voters not long after Data for Progress did another poll, with Democratic voters overall, showing more bad news for Schumer as we covered on Thursday.
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