‘Be prepared’: Atlantic hurricane season could see up to 5 major storms | Globalnews.ca
It’s looking to be another active Atlantic hurricane season this year.
U.S. forecasters are expecting above-normal activity over the next six months with up to five major storms possible.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual forecast for the Atlantic and predicted a 60 per cent chance of an above-normal season, with a 30 per cent chance of a normal season.
According to NOAA, the season will see a range of 13 to 19 total named storms in which winds will reach 39 miles per hour, or 62 kilometres per hour.
Of those tropical storms, it’s expected six to 10 will become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or more — about 119 kilometres per hour, with three to five major storms reaching category three or higher.
NOAA says it has a 70 per cent confidence in these ranges.
“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared,” said NOAA’s national weather service director Ken Graham.
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“Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Those numbers are in line with what researchers at Colorado State University, whose data is widely watched, which forecast 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four reaching major status.
While the forecast comes from the U.S. agency, Canadians could still be impacted by powerful storms potentially heading their way.
Remnants of Hurricane Beryl, a category five storm, brought torrential rainfall to southern Ontario last July, with up to four inches also reported in parts of Montreal.
Flash flooding was also reported in Nova Scotia as a result of the storm’s remaining moisture moving into the region.
Unlike last year, La Nina is no longer in effect, but NOAA researchers say warmer than average ocean temperatures and forecasts of weaker wind shear — which can disrupt the storms — are creating favourable conditions for the more active season.
The agency also said there’s the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, which can produce tropical waves that “seed some of the strongest and most long-lived storms.”
This year’s forecast, however, is slightly lower than what was seen last year when La Nina was in effect.
At that time, NOAA was forecasting an 85 per cent chance of an above-normal season with 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven reaching major status.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 until Nov. 30, with the peak typically between mid-August and mid-October.
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