When Beltway people and media members talk about the upcoming fight over renewing or making permanent the 2017 Trump tax cuts, the conversation often gets bogged down in details like the reconciliation process, the Parliamentarian’s rulings on what can be included in such a legislative package, and internal debates over the sequencing of bills. The how is, of course, very important, but it’s not the biggest story here. The other major angle that’s often presented is whether or not Congressional Republicans will be able to cobble together the votes (which just got a little easier this week) to pass President Trump’s signature agenda items. Again, the political intrigue and the whip counts are all salient and relevant but still miss the single most important element of this looming battle. If the Trump tax cuts are not extended by the end of the year, that would trigger the largest tax increase in the history of the country, slamming families across every income group – as well as businesses, big and small.
I asked conservative stalwart Steve Forbes about this issue on Fox Business this week, and he underscored how urgent this reality is, expressing how important it is for Republicans’ sales pitch on this front to relentlessly focus on that exact point:
Republicans should be shouting from the rooftops that if the Trump tax cuts *aren’t* extended by the end of the year, that will automatically trigger massive tax hikes for Americans across every income bracket — as well as for businesses, big and small. That cannot happen. pic.twitter.com/MYv99pd09D
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 3, 2025
Fortunately, the conservative group Americans for Prosperity continues to spend heavily to lay the groundwork for this argument. Democrats will have their ready-made talking points against extending the tax cuts, so it’s essential to make every voter aware that not doing so will equal gargantuan tax hikes across every income group. It would be devastating for the American people and the American economy. To that end, AFP (disclosure: I serve on the organization’s advisory council) has just unveiled new television spots – part of a seven-figure ad buy – that will air nationally. People need to see this:
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This version is running in the DC market, aimed squarely at members of Congress:
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Last time we had this policy argument, Democrats warned the tax relief and simplification would just benefit “millionaires and billionaires” and would wreck the economy. Armageddon, they cried. They hyperventilated that the tax relief would starve the federal government, unleashing untold harm. What actually happened was that Americans across every income bracket got to keep more of their hard-earned money, wages went up, the economy roared, and revenues hit record highs. Their fearmongering was wrong. On all of it. And spare me “deficits and debt” concern-trolling from the party that overwhelmingly supported trillions more in wasteful, inflationary spending, even after our COVID-era binge. Last time around, the framing was harder because critics were arguing against a new policy with scary claims. This time, the very real fear of brutal tax increases works in favor of maintaining or building upon the lower-tax status quo in order to avoid big hikes. Republicans must get this done, and Democrats should pay a price for opposing the prevention of painful, across-the-board tax hikes.
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