It was January 2016, just two weeks before the Iowa caucus. Then-candidate Donald Trump delivered to a Christian college audience what would become the line of his political career: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose voters, OK?”
Since making that wild and revealing statement, his supporters and detractors alike have been testing the limits of that theory to pretty conclusive results.
Though he hasn’t actually shot somebody, President Trump has done nearly everything a leader could do to turn voters off.
For Trump opponents, it’s been a frustrating ride, where, seemingly around every corner, the possibility of “the end” of Trump has been dangled — temptingly and precariously — only for him to survive and in some cases even boost his popularity in the process.
The first test of the hypothetical came with the “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump openly brags about grabbing women’s genitalia. Many politicos, and plenty of his own fans, predicted this would end his presidential aspirations. They were, of course, wrong.
Then began the years-long efforts to impeach him — efforts that were well-warranted, but only saw his popularity improve.
Then it felt certain that his overwhelming political losses after four years would do him in — he lost the House, the Senate and the White House for Republicans. But nope.
Then there was Jan. 6, 2021, one of the darkest days in modern American history. Despite video of Trump supporters storming the Capitol and beating police officers, Trump paid no political price for inciting an insurrection.
Then, it was thought, there’s no way America could elect a convicted criminal president again. But, being found liable for sexual abuse and convicted on 34 felony charges for falsifying business documents to cover up an extramarital affair isn’t a disqualifier, apparently. He won the second-highest vote total in U.S. history.
The belief that any of these things would be Trump’s death knell is borne out of a fundamental misunderstanding of Trump’s voters. They’re not concerned with these existential, moral or political measurements of acceptability. That’s for the wokes and the elites.
But finally, the Fifth Avenue scenario has, in fact, arrived.
And the question isn’t whether he’ll lose any voters by shooting someone — it’s whether he’ll lose any voters by doing the political equivalent: wrecking the American economy.
Voters in the 2024 election were exceedingly clear — their No. 1 issue was the economy.
But the chaos and imprudence of Trump’s misguided and mismanaged tariffs have roiled the markets and fueled talk of a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 1,000 points this week, and the S&P has suffered 9% losses in less than a month.
Economists predict his tariffs could result in higher prices for Americans on everything from cars to beer and liquor, homes to gas and groceries.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended the tariffs and told “CBS Evening News” this week that the policies will be “worth it,” even if they bring on a recession.
‘Shut up about egg prices’
Trump’s Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins flippantly suggested Americans dealing with rising egg prices should raise chickens in their backyards to offset the costs.
Trump himself shared a post from a right-wing activist telling voters to “Shut up about egg prices.”
After saying he’d make the economy better on Day 1, Trump is now saying we’ll have to endure a “a little disturbance” and a “period of transition” to accommodate his protectionist policies. When asked aboard Air Force One if we’re headed toward a recession he said, “Who knows?”
Besides scaring the markets, Trump’s economic policies and rhetoric aren’t impressing voters either. According to a new CNN/SSRS poll, 56% of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy.
This week CNBC favorite Jim Cramer warned Trump may be “manufacturing” a recession, and accused him of economic “arson.” And CNBC’s Steve Liesman blasted Trump’s tariffs as “insane.”
Fox News’ Peter Doocy questioned why Trump was holding a Tesla photo-op while Americans were watching their retirement accounts plummet.
To be clear, these are friendlies! But Trump’s desire to upset the American economy, even despite dire warnings and at the expense of the voters who elected him, could have a chilling effect he likely hasn’t experienced before.
His voters may not care about things like insurrections and impeachments, democracy and despotism, ethics and morals — but they do care about their bank accounts, their retirement accounts, their home prices, and the cost of goods. And if Trump detonates the American economy — just to see what will happen — he may just find himself standing in the middle of Fifth Avenue, aiming his tariffs at his own voters.
S.E. Cupp is the host of “S.E. Cupp Unfiltered” on CNN.
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