However, with a Holyrood election to take place in May 2026, he warned that “nothing is certain” in terms of the outcome given recent polling.
Mr Cameron also called on politicians to focus on what matters to people throughout 2025, and said Scotland in Union will continue to expose the SNP’s “failings” in office and promote “the positive case” for remaining part of the UK.
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“As we turn the page on 2024 and look to the future, I am cautiously optimistic about Scotland remaining secure in the UK.
“The optimism comes from the knowledge that Scotland remains stronger in the UK – not just economically, but also in terms of international influence and defence. Scots benefit from free movement across the UK, and most value these benefits.
“Meanwhile, Scottish nationalists appear to lurch from crisis to crisis, and failure to failure.
“However, with that optimism comes caution. Recent polling suggests not only that a significant proportion of Scots think leaving the UK could be an option worth pursuing, but also that the SNP may be the largest party in the Scottish Parliament after the May 2026 election.
“If that happens, the nationalists could form another administration at Holyrood, and will be able to continue to use the powers of the Scottish Government to drive a wedge between Scotland and the rest of the UK.”
He added: “This year will be a critical year for Scotland. 2025 will set the scene for the next Holyrood election, when Scotland will have the opportunity to remove the nationalists from office.
“But nothing is certain.
“I am concerned by the apparent fragmentation of politics in the UK (and elsewhere), and the way people are moving more towards polarised extremes. If this trend continues, pragmatic compromises will be harder, and nationalists and other more extreme elements will benefit.
“In Scotland, this could well benefit the SNP and its nationalist allies.
“In 2025, therefore, Scotland in Union will continue to expose the nationalists’ failings in office; we will call on politicians to focus on what really matters to people; and we will promote the positive case for remaining part of the UK. We will work with the three main pro-UK parties where appropriate to advance this agenda.
“Our aim in the short to medium term is to help to remove the nationalists from power in Scotland in 2026, so that we can go forward together.”
Recent polling has put the SNP comfortably on course to emerge as the largest party with a pro-independence majority at Holyrood after the May 2026 election.
Research carried out by Norstat for the Sunday Times last month in the wake of John Swinney’s first budget put the First Minister’s party on 37% for constituency votes and at 32% on the regional list.
It also put support for a Yes vote in a Scottish independence referendum at 54% when “don’t knows” are excluded, the highest level recorded in four years.
Analysis of the poll by expert Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would be on 59 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, the Conservatives on 19, Reform on 13, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on seven.
The poll put support for Scottish Labour at 21% in the constituency vote and 18% in the regional list.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives were on 14% in the constituency vote and 16% in the regional list.
The SNP was approached for comment.
